Firm Returns Weekly - TBLD, WBD, TMI
tinyBuild
Streets of Rogue 2
Streets of Rogue 2 has continued to gain momentum, with the game breaking into the top-100 most wishlisted upcoming games on Steam this week.
Using the internal wishlist data we've been given for recent releases (see I Am Future article below), we can make a guess as to the current wishlist numbers for Streets of Rogue 2.
I Am Future had 160k wishlists at launch, and was the 135th most wishlisted game on Steam at the time. Punch Club 2 had 100k wishlists at launch, and was ~220th in the wishlist rankings. Following release, the wishlists for both games grew to exceed 200k.
With these figures in mind, we can probably make a reasonable estimate that Streets of Rogue 2 currently has >200k wishlists on Steam, and we're still a long way from launch. We could be looking at a similar level of success to Potion Craft which sold 700k copies during early access and >1m post v1.0 launch.
I Am Future Article
We have been graced with another excellent article from Alex Nichiporchik (CEO of tinyBuild), that reveals the wishlist data for I Am Future leading up to its launch on 8 Aug.
We now know the game had 160k wishlists at launch, and has thus far generated >$500k in sales, translating to >30k copies sold. The wishlist has subsequently grown to ~200k, positioning the game to perform well during sales and at v1.0 launch.
These articles have really been giving us an insight into tinyBuild's well-oiled publishing machine.
Alex Nichiporchik
Warner Bros. Discovery
Mortal Kombat 1
WBD has been ramping up the marketing ahead of the release of Mortal Kombat 1 on 19 Sep, with several new trailers including one with Dave Bautista. Each trailer has had more than 1m views on YouTube, and the Official Announcement Trailer released 3 months ago has had 8m.
While it's likely this game will sell significantly better on consoles than PC, the Steam figures are looking pretty positive, with the game already in 50th place in the top-sellers list from pre-sales alone. Retailing at $69.99, we can expect the game to bring in a substantial amount of revenue.
Taylor Maritime Investments
The Baltic Handy-Size Index (BHSI) seems to be inflecting up from the lows it reached last month, which should help TMI in its efforts to pay down the debt it built up from the Grindrod acquisition.
The net time charter rate of $10,600 per day reported for the TMI fleet at the end of the last quarter, equated to an unlevered gross cash yield of 7.9%. This isn't sufficient to achieve the debt repayment targets and cover the dividend, and so the company has been paying down the debt through vessel sales, which have thus far been highly profitable.
Beyond the seasonal and macro-economic contributors to charter rate fluctuations, there remains the structural tailwind of positive supply-demand dynamics in the Handysize segment due to the ageing fleet, low orderbook, and increasing uncertainty around environmental regulation.
In hindsight, now is a more opportune moment to buy the stock than when I first purchased it in 2021, as it currently trades below its quite modest IPO price - it IPO'd with a 7% dividend yield, and now yields 9.2%, with substantial NAV growth to boot.
